The incidence rises again in 13 Communities: these are the most affected by the rebound of the ‘curve’. Several Communities are on the verge of the ‘fourth wave’ due to a serious rebound in incidence.. Health reports another 356 deaths from covid and the incidence continues to escalate for the eighth consecutive day.
With Easter already on their heels, the autonomous communities hold their breath while the incidence curves show clear signs that the stagnation in the epidemic may have ended to give way to what until now Health has only dared to describe as ” trend reversal “or upward trend.
Restrictions in force at Easter
How abrupt the change will be and how upward the trend will be remains to be seen, but some communities are already sounding bad omens. According to the latest data bulletin published by Health, the cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days have risen in 13 communities, with particular force in Navarra (8.3%), La Rioja (4.95%), the Basque Country (3 , 4%) and Madrid (3.2%) , although they have also increased in Castilla y León (2.3%), Extremadura (1.8%), Aragón (1.8%), Melilla (1.4 %), Andalusia (1.1%), the Canary Islands (1%), Cantabria (1%), the Balearic Islands (0.7%) and Galicia (0.1%).
On the other hand, this indicator only decreased in the Valencian Community (-4.8%), Murcia (-3.4%), Ceuta (-1.4%), Castilla-La Mancha (-1.3%) and Catalonia (-0.2%).
But observing only the still photo that leaves the daily increase in incidence at 14 days causes important nuances to be lost. When the 7-day incidence represents more than 50% of the 14-day incidence, something is wrong. In fact, even when this indicator – also called the ‘rate ratio’ – exceeds 40%, there are already reasons for concern.
Well, right now, La Rioja (67.2%), Navarra (64.5%), Balearic Islands (56%), Aragon (54.8%), Basque Country (54%), Canary Islands (50.8 %) and Castilla y León (50.4%) exceed that percentage. And only the Valencian Community (39.8%) is still below 40%.
These percentages, said the deputy director of the Ccaes, María José Sierra last Monday, “clearly indicate that the trend is upward, that transmission is increasing and that it is expected that in the coming days, if it is not corrected, we will have some more increases. clear “.